March 2026: production expected stable. Rising costs the main impact of the war on business
Giovanna Labartino
Lorenzo Marchetti
Tuesday 31 March 2026
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- In March 2026, the large companies associated with Confindustria indicate stable production expectations compared to February. According to the results of the quick survey on industrial production, 45.6% of respondents expect stable production. Compared to the previous month, the share of those who expect an increase (45.6% from 50.3%). Finally, the quota of those expecting a decrease is’8,8% (Chart 1).
- The balances of the answers, relating to the main factors that will support or restrain production in the coming months, indicate a general worsening. In particular with regard to production costs and availability of materials.
- Industrialists regard demand and orders as the main factors supporting production.
- Ratings on the availability of labour and expectations on financial conditions.
- In the March questionnaire, industrialists were asked about the main problems or obstacles arising from the conflict in Middle East, both with regard to the critical issues already encountered and those expected should the conflict continue for more than a month. The results show that the three main tension factors are the cost of energy, currently the most relevant for the 25,0% of the respondents to the question, transport and/or insurance costs (21.9%) and the cost of raw materials non-energy (18,4%). The latter is indicated as the main cause for concern should the conflict continue beyond one month from the 20,7% of the companies that responded to the question. Among other possible critical issues indicated to the respondents, it is noted that if the conflict lasts more than one month, the share of industrialists expressing concern about such factors increases (Chart 2).
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