June 2026: production forecasts remain stable, but the war is driving up energy and transport costs
Giovanna Labartino
Lorenzo Marchetti
Wednesday 1 July 2026
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- The flash survey of large industrial firms affiliated to Confindustria in June 2026 indicates expectations of stable production and a slight improvement compared with May. Almost half of those surveyed expect production to remain stable (47.3%, up from 43.9%). The proportion of those expecting a moderate or significant increase (43.9%) remains virtually unchanged. Finally, the proportion of those expecting a decline stands at 8.8% (down from 14.3% in the previous survey; Chart 1).
- Demand and orders remained the main factors supporting production in June as well; the outlook for plant availability has also returned to positive territory.
- Production costs remain the main drag on growth, with figures still very negative; the availability of materials and financial conditions also remain critical, whilst the outlook for labour availability is deteriorating.
- In the June questionnaire, businesses were asked to identify the main problems and obstacles linked to the conflict in the Middle East, distinguishing between issues already encountered and those that might arise in the absence of a lasting truce. The responses collected show that the main problems experienced are the cost of energy raw materials, cited as the most significant factor by 28.2% of firms, followed by transport, logistics and insurance (21.4%) and the rise in the cost of non-energy raw materials and intermediate inputs (15.0%).
- Should the geopolitical situation fail to stabilise, the main concern relates to a further rise in transport and insurance costs, as indicated by 19.7% of the responding companies. This is followed by rising prices for non-energy raw materials (19.4%) and the risk of obstacles to, or a reduction in, exports to countries involved in the conflict, which is the third most frequently cited risk factor by respondents (17.9%) (Chart 2).
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