Italy's economic picture worsens under the pressure of rising energy prices and tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East. This is reported by the Confindustria Centro Studi in its Flash April 2026.

Specifically, the impact of the energy shock is already reflected in several indicators: from the drop in the household confidence, with risks to consumption, the deterioration of expectations of enterprises until sovereign rates rise.

Energy and rising rates

As for the oil, The price remains high at an average of USD 102 per barrel in April, up from previous months and well above end-2025 levels. More contained, however, gas dynamics declining slightly after the March peaks, but remaining at high values.

The geopolitical environment is also pushing up European sovereign rates and fuelling expectations of further restrictive interventions by the ECB, with expected effects on corporate credit.

Investments hold, consumption slows

Analysing the investments, In the first quarter of 2026, signs of resilience are emerging, supported also by the resources of the NRP. Confidence in companies producing capital goods is also stable, while in the construction sector there are positive indications on the employment front.

More weak consumption picture. Retail sales were down and household confidence deteriorated markedly, with the risk of increased saving and a consequent slowdown in spending.

Industry and services, expectations worsen

Industrial production also showed a still weak dynamic, with the first quarter declining. Although the manufacturing PMI remains in the expansionary area, activity is partly supported by inventory accumulations related to expectations of price increases.

Expectations, on the other hand, worsened, with industrial companies reporting a drop in production expectations, while in services there was a drop in demand, with indicators returning to the recessionary zone.

Export and international scenario

Signals of recovery in February by Italian exports, driven in particular by sales to the United States. However, the introduction of new duties and the effects of the conflict risk reducing the competitiveness of Italian companies and affecting significant flows, particularly to the Gulf countries.

At the international level, the Centre's analysis showed signs of weakening in the Eurozone, while in the US the outlook remains more favourable. Chinese growth is expected to slow down in 2026, partly due to trade and energy-related difficulties.

Focus: rising energy costs for companies

This month's focus highlights how the tensions related to the conflict are mainly translated into higher costs for companies, especially for energy. According to estimates by the Centro Studi Confindustria, in 2026 the energy bill of Italian manufacturing could rise by 7 billion of euro in the scenario of an early conclusion of the conflict, up to 21 billion in the case of a prolongation for the whole year, with a significant impact on competitiveness.

In addition to energy, the main critical issues reported by companies relate to transport and raw material costs, while forward-looking concerns related to the supply of inputs and the resilience of exports, especially in the most conflict-prone markets, are increasing.