The Italian economic scenario opens in 2026 with a worsening picture compared to the end of last year. As the Centro Studi Confindustria's February 2026 Flash Conjecture, After the growth recorded in Q4 2025 (+0.3% GDP), supported by NRP investments, the start of the new year shows a more uncertain environment, with industry held back by still weak exports and consumption.

Household confidence and service performance improved in January, but industrial dynamics remain volatile and recovery slow, also due to the effect of a weaker dollar reducing the competitiveness of Italian exports.

Energy and credit remain decisive variables

The cost of energy continues to put pressure on the production system. Oil rose to USD 71 per barrel in February and gas remains at high levels. Against this backdrop, the bill“ decree” launched by the government could significantly reduce energy prices for businesses and households, if confirmed at European level. The credit dynamic was different. The rate paid by businesses interrupted the downward phase and reversed course, signalling less favourable financial conditions than in previous months.

Investments holding up, consumption still slow

Cyclical indicators show a favourable trend for investment, especially in plant and machinery, supported by improved confidence among manufacturing companies, especially in capital goods.

By contrast, consumption dynamics remain weak, with retail sales falling at the end of 2025, almost cancelling out the quarter's growth, while the beginning of 2026 shows only gradual signs of recovery. The growth is therefore still supported more by the investment side than by household demand.

Services accelerating, industry still fragile

The services sector shows a strengthening, with indicators in the expansionary area and an increase in business confidence. The situation in industry is different, where the recovery remains weak and uneven. Data show that production fell again in December and that demand, both domestic and foreign, remains insufficient to support a real turnaround.

The international context remains heterogeneous

Globally, the following emerge differentiated signals among the major economies. In the Eurozone there are signs of a timid recovery. In Q4 GDP grew by 0.3% with a slight increase in employment, while the latest indicators show an expansion of services in Germany and industry in France, accompanied by an improvement in labour expectations. In States United States economic activity continues to maintain a positive profile, supported by industrial production, but with a labour market that remains weak. In India, On the other hand, manufacturing accelerated strongly, driven by increased production and stronger orders, confirming its position as one of the most dynamic areas in the global picture.

Focus of the month: industry still settling in

In the course of the 2025 Italian industry went through a transition phase from the fall recorded in the previous two years towards a partial recovery, without a real turnaround having yet taken place. The fall in production was more moderate than in previous years and the number of growth sectors expanded, but the dynamics remain uneven and still insufficient to sustain a robust expansion of manufacturing activity.

Factors common to most of the divisions include the high cost of energy, the weakness of domestic and foreign demand and the uncertainty of the international environment. At the same time, some supportive elements - in particular investment in machinery and less restrictive financial conditions than at the 2023 peak - are helping to stabilise the picture.

Looking ahead to 2026, available indicators for the beginning of the year suggest a moderate improvement. Manufacturing could return to positive territory after three negative years, but only partially recovering lost levels.