October: expectations still positive for production, but down slightly

Giovanna Labartino

Senior Economist

Labour Market and Income Distribution

Lorenzo Marchetti

Economist

Conjuncture and Macroeconomic Simulations

Wednesday 29 October 2025

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  • The quick survey on industrial production, addressed to large industrial enterprises associated with Confindustria, in the October survey records a drop in expectations compared to the previous month. but the picture remains positive overall. Almost half of the large industrial enterprises associated with prevede an increase in productionsignificant or moderate (46.3%). More than one third expect stability (35.1%), while just under a fifth (18.6%) expect a contraction.

  • The balance related to demand and orders rises again and is again the main strength supporting production. In October it stood at 5.2%, after touching zero last month (Chart 2).
  • Business expectations on the availability of labour in the coming months improve: the balance in October was 0.8%, which follows 0.2% in the previous month.
  • Negative balance for production costsin the October survey improved compared to the previous month while remaining negative (-4.2% from -5.3%).
  • Judgments regarding the financial conditions remain firmly positive in the current month, declining slightly (1.5% from 2.0%).
  • As for the availability of materials, the balance of October responses dropped significantly and went into negative territory (-2.9% from 0.8%).
  • The industrialists' verdict on the availability of facilities worsens significantly in the current month's survey (-0.4% from 2.4%).

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