January: companies expect stable production
Giovanna Labartino
Lorenzo Marchetti
Friday 30 January 2026
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- The quick survey on industrial production at large industrial enterprises associated with Confindustria shows, in the January survey an improvement in expectations compared to the previous month. More than half of the companies expect production to remain unchanged (54.5%), while more than a third expect an increase (35.0%); the share of those reporting a moderate or significant decline remains small (10.5%).
- Looking at the quarterly dynamics (Chart 1), in Q4 2025, almost a quarter of the respondents (24.2%) expected a contraction in activity, compared to 45.5% who expected stable production and 30.3% who anticipated an increase. With the January survey, which kicks off the current quarter, an improvement in the economic picture is observed, attributable in particular to the reduction in the share of companies expecting a contraction in production.
- The balance related to demand and orders remains the main strength supporting production. In January, the balance improved to 3.8%, after 2.0% in December (Chart 2).
- Business expectations on the availability of labour in the coming months remain firmly in negative territory: the balance in January was -1.2%, after -1.4% in the previous survey.
- The balance related to production costs in the current month confirmed the sharp deterioration seen in December (-4.6% from -5.0%).
- Judgments regarding the financial conditions worsened, while remaining weakly positive, compared to the previous month (+0.1% from +2.1%).
- Regarding the availability of materials, The balance of responses consolidated in the current month, rising to +1.5% from +0.9%.
- The industrialists' verdict on the availability of facilities deteriorated in the current month's survey (+0.4% after +1.4% in December).
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