La Flash conjecture of November, a new monthly update of the Centro Studi Confindustria, photographs an Italian economy in which GDP remains staticdespite a framework characterised by moderate inflation, increased confidence and rising investment in the second half of the year. Weighed down above all by the two external brakes - US duties and a weak dollar - limiting export dynamics and contributing to the stagnation in the third quarter.

Rising food prices, falling oil and US rate cut

On the price front, the CSC notes a increase in foodstuffs (+2.3%, +5.8% meat) against a downturn in oil back to 2019 levels (USD 64 per barrel), with moderate effects on fuels. Total inflation thus remains moderate (+1.2%).

In United States Monetary easing continued: the Fed cut rates to 4.0%, the second consecutive intervention, with a further adjustment expected between December and January. In the Eurozoneinstead, ECB rates remain firm at 2.00%

Italy: investment still growing, household confidence improving

The investments confirm a positive phase in the second half of the yearsupported by the NRP and the improvement in the confidence of companies producing capital goods. On the consumption front, household confidence rose for the second month in a row, a signal that could limit the propensity to save. Exports recover slightly in September (+2.6%), driven by the US, albeit in an environment made uncertain by new US duties on medium and heavy vehicles.

Services expanding, industry still weak

Services show mostly positive indicators: tourism is growing moderately and the SME of October rose to 54.0. Industry, on the other hand, continues to show signs of weaknessDespite the rebound in September (+2.8%), Q3 production remains in negative territory (-0.5%), with confidence recovering slightly but orders still fragile.

Europe: diverging industries

From 2023 emerges a large gap between the major European economies. Italy and Germany show the weakest performance, while France and Spain maintain a more stable or slightly increasing trajectory.

In the first nine months of 2025, Industrial production falls again in Germany (-1.5%) and Italy (-0.9%), while growing in Spain (+1.0%) and remaining stable in France. The differential is related to structural factors such as the cost of energythe car crisis and international trade tensions.

US and China: signs of a slowdown

In United States there are signs of weakness in manufacturing and consumption, with indicators such as ISM and Chicago PMI in recessionary territory. In Chinaindustry slows down (PMI at 50.6), exports drop by 1.1% and sales to the US fall by 25.2%, confirming a still complex international picture.

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