Presented at the Chamber of Deputies was the Centro Studi Confindustria's autumn 2024 forecast report 'The knots of competitiveness. Italy's growth between global tensions, rates and PNRR'.

According to the Report, the growth of the GDP in Italy, following the ISTAT revision, stands at +0,8% this year and 0,9% next, in line with the government's estimate at current legislation. It is also broadly in line with Eurozone growth, despite a more restrictive monetary policy in Italy, the country with the lowest inflation in Europe (at 0.7% per year in September, 1.7% in the Eurozone).

The World Economy is on the upswing but Europe is weak, continues to grow less than other world players (still squeezed by high rates) and loses foreign direct investment. The collapse of theautomotive and Germany's difficulties. The China-West decoupling continues: cross-buying falls, while US-EU purchases grow. China is no longer a driver of European and US exports.

Le geopolitical tensions are on the rise, raising the possibility of negative repercussions on world trade and commodity prices. Freight costs remain high. Protectionist barriers increase and the presidential elections in the USA exacerbate uncertainty.

The income available is growing, but consumption is held back by the high savings rate. In the two-year period, however, it will fall thanks also to the rate cut, and this dynamic will favour the recovery of consumption.

The recovery of real wages continues, especially in the private sector, with theindustry which sees the largest and most advanced recovery. The mechanism for adjusting minimum wage rates has favoured faster inflation recovery than in other European countries. Per capita hours worked fell and recovers to a modest extent the productivity especially in industry. The number of employed continues to grow in line with GDP.

The investments stop this year, return to 2008 levels and are only partially offset by those predicted by the NRP. The decline continues in 2025, especially those related to the housing. Transition 5.0 to be simplified for it to be effective.

PNRR crucial for growth. Italy is ahead of the others in implementing the Plan but we have to run. This year we have spent little (9.5 billion out of 44).

L'export net of imports is the main growth driver this year. Despite weak demand from Europe (which accounts for 52% of Italian exports) and especially Germany (main trading partner), Italian exports continue to outperform potential demand (weighted average of total imports from destination countries). This is because SMEs increased productivity more than their German and French counterparts and increased the number of exporting companies (as well as the share of medium-sized and large companies) and the average export per company in all size classes.

Services push Italian growth. In construction, the negative dynamics of residential building will prevail due to the end of incentives this year and will decrease even more in 2025. Industry is still doing badly while waiting for domestic and foreign demand for goods to slowly recover. Sectoral performances are very heterogeneous.

The demographic decline will increase the shortage of workers which is already a problem today: in five years' time, demand will exceed supply by a further 1.3 million. It is crucial to take action to cover this need (For further information Focus 3).

Accommodation costs too high restrain the mobility of workers and exacerbate personnel shortages at territorial level. (For further information Focus 4).

The collapse of thecarswhich this year has returned to the production level of early 2013, is the consequence of the high costs of electric cars. Given the importance of this sector in the economy, it represents a risk for Italian and European growth, both in the short and medium to long term. (For more information on Focus 5).

With the ETS system increasingly stringent and the CBAM operational, European companies continue to lose competitiveness. And indeed, there is a growing risk that some of these - accounting for 9% of manufacturing value added in Italy and the EU - will close or be relocated outside the EU. (For further information Focus 6).

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