Journal of Economic Policy

THE NEW ATLAS. HOW GLOBAL SHOCKS ARE CHANGING THE ECONOMY

Introduction

by Stefano Manzocchi, Francesco Saraceno

Growth and inflation: a storm in slow motion

by Lorenzo Codogno

The return of budgetary policy and the revival of public investment

by Floriana Cerniglia, Francesco Saraceno

Monetary policy, financial intermediation and the policy mix: the case of the European Union

by Marcello Messori

Inequality, its mechanisms and consequences

by Maurizio Franzini, Michele Raitano

Unemployment and hysteresis in EU countries: lessons from very different crises

by Alfonso Arpaia, Alessandro Turrini

Corporate governance systems: structural characteristics and future prospects

by Alessandro Zattoni

The European Innovation Clubs

by Ariel L. Wirkierman, Tommaso Ciarli, Maria Savona

Nearshoring and Farsharing in Europe in the Global Economy

by Filippo Bontadini, Valentina Meliciani, Maria Savona, Ariel L. Wirkierman

Fintech: scenarios and challenges for a possible finance of the future

by Nicola Borri

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Introduction

by Stefano Manzocchi, Francesco Saraceno

  • In the last fifteen years, the world economy has been on a rollercoaster ride, going through all the phases it had experienced in the previous century in the space of three five-year periods.
  • The impressive sequence of cyclical or structural crises that we have and are currently experiencing is all the more significant in that it follows a thirty-year period, from the mid-1980s to the 2008 crisis, of 'Great Moderation', of unpronounced cyclical fluctuations and moderate, stable inflation.
  • The excesses in the financial markets, growing inequality, and macroeconomic and trade imbalances that led to the 2008 global financial crisis have provoked a profound rethinking of the 'Consensus' based on the neo-Keynesian model centred on market efficiency and a limited role for macroeconomic and structural policies. A debate was launched on the need to rethink the role of public agents, whether national or supranational, in stabilising the economic cycle, setting policies for economic and social reform and innovation, accompanying growth alongside private agents and social partners, and simplifying and better regulating intervention in market mechanisms.
  • The debate covers many aspects, from industrial policy to income distribution, from demography to the education system, from taxation to other structural reforms, from new dimensions of work to efficiency in public administration. In particular, the current debate re-evaluates the role of budgetary policy, which has now become central again in macroeconomic stabilisation and in contributing to industrial policies, after having long been relegated to a marginal role. The debate on public investment and its impact on growth and employment in the short and long term continues today, after having been lively since 2008, even in a context in which public debt has increased everywhere since the pandemic.
  • This issue of the Journal of Economic Policy attempts to take stock of some of the aspects of this debate, which is ongoing and has not yet led to the emergence of a consensus similar to that of the years before the global financial crisis. The attempt is to present an albeit partial atlas of the economic debate as it has emerged in recent years and, in particular, since the shocks that have hit in the last two years. The authors of the articles collected here come from different backgrounds, intellectual orientations and analytical perspectives as in the spirit of the Magazine - seek to provide the reader with insights into whether the debate between academics and policy makers is asking the right questions about how the transformation of reality should be interpreted and addressed. And, equally important, whether the answers are up to the challenges facing the economy and society.

Growth and inflation: a storm in slow motion

by Lorenzo Codogno

  • Over the past fifteen years, there have been various crises, from the global financial crisis of 2008-09 to the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone in 2010-11, from the pandemic to the more recent crisis related to rising inflation in many countries. In some respects, the world economy is more resilient today, but in others it is still more vulnerable. In this paper, the focus is on the outlook for economic growth and interest rates, and their impact on the financial sustainability of government debt.
  • The tsunami that started in 2021 may come to an end in the course of 2023. Although the rise in inflation has apparently been synchronous internationally, the underlying phenomena are profoundly different, justifying monetary and fiscal policies that are not fully aligned. Public and private debts as a percentage of GDP remain close to historical highs, and this is coupled with rising interest rates that will make servicing debt increasingly expensive.
  • The current sharp slowdown in the world economy will bring specific problems for the Eurozone and Italy to the surface. It will probably translate into a full-blown recession, the contours of which at the moment do not seem to be particularly marked or even prolonged, if the various pieces that make up the global geopolitical and economic-financial puzzle manage to fit together without further shocks. But there are many unknowns about the new normal that will emerge after this phase.

JEL Classification: E0, E3, E63, F3.
Keywords: macroeconomic development, price, business fluctuation and cycle, joint analysis of fiscal and monetary policy, international finance.

The return of budgetary policy and the revival of public investment

by Floriana Cerniglia, Francesco Saraceno

  • After the turbulent 1970s, academia and policy makers in the advanced countries adhered for thirty years to the economic paradigm of the New Consensus which, postulating market efficiency, attributed a very limited role to macroeconomic policy. In particular, what was removed from the toolbox was budgetary policy, which was less 'technocratic' than monetary policy and thus more prone to distortions and delays. The European institutions, created in the 1990s, reflect this New Consensus.
  • The global financial crisis triggered a process of rethinking (Rethinking Macroeconomics), which shifted the pendulum between market and state back to the state. Today, fiscal policy seems indispensable for both short-term macroeconomic stabilisation and industrial policy and the provision of public goods in the long run. The role of public investment, sacrificed for decades in all OECD countries, is central both in the theoretical rethinking process and in the post-pandemic recovery plans.
  • In this context, one cannot help but look with some concern at the European Commission's recent proposal to reform the Stability Pact. The proposal is a substantial improvement on the existing one, but does not seem to guarantee the creation of a 'fiscal space' for EU member states. In order to meet the challenges of the future, from strategic autonomy to investment in ecological and digital transitions, it will be necessary to open the construction site of a European fiscal capacity as soon as possible.

JEL Classification: E22, E32, E62, E65, G01, H12.
Keywords: fiscal policy, austerity, public investment, public goods, industrial policy, strategic autonomy, global financial crisis, macroeconomic governance, Stability Pact, New Consensus.

Monetary policy, financial intermediation and the policy mix: the case of the European Union

by Marcello Messori

  • The pandemic shock triggered an innovative economic policy response in the EU: expansionary combinations of the ECB's monetary policy, the fiscal policies of the various member states and - albeit temporary - forms of centralised fiscal policy that resulted in the Next Generation EU programmes.
  • Thanks to the new policy mix, monetary policy ceased to be the 'only game in town' with a supplanting role to national fiscal policies that tended to be pro-cyclical. This policy mix offered a 'template' to cope with new exogenous shocks.
  • On the other hand, persistent supply-side bottlenecks and energy problems, exacerbated by the Russian war in Ukraine, risk condemning the EU economy to stagflation without effective policy counteractors.
  • With annual inflation rates around 10%, neither the ultra-expansive monetary policy implemented between March 2020 and the end of 2021, nor the abnormal growth in spending in countries with a high stock of public debt allowed by the 'safety net' offered by the ECB's unconventional programmes is desirable today.
  • The policy 'model' inherited from the pandemic, however, should have ensured that monetary policy was not left alone to cope with inflationary processes triggered by supply-side slumps.
  • The difficulties in implementing the various Next Generation EU programmes and Europe's inability to strengthen centralised fiscal policies capable of curbing supply-side bottlenecks show that the response to the pandemic has not become a method.
  • The challenge is to produce appropriate European public goods and to broaden their impact through the development of an efficient European capital market.

JEL classification: E58, E52, E61, E44.
Keywords: monetary policy, centralised fiscal policy, policy mix, banking union, capital markets union process.

Inequality, its mechanisms and consequences

by Maurizio Franzini, Michele Raitano

  • Inequality must be studied in order to understand the processes that generate it and their acceptability and to highlight its possible negative consequences with respect to economic growth and other social objectives.
  • Looking at inequality by focusing only on the division of output between wages and profits is limiting, because it does not allow us to understand the profound changes taking place within the world of work.
  • On a theoretical level, various mechanisms can lead to a slowdown in growth as inequality increases. For example, a large part of inequality originates from phenomena, such as curbing competition, which can limit growth.
  • We must, therefore, overcome Okun's 'bucket hole' metaphor, which has been an essential reference point to support the trade-off between reducing inequality (fairness) and expanding overall income (efficiency). To be concerned with inequality, and the mechanisms that generate it, is to be simultaneously concerned with protecting fairness and fostering growth and efficiency.

JEL Classification: D31, D33, D63, J31.
Keywords: inequality, functional distribution, personal distribution, social justice, equality of opportunity, economic growth.

Unemployment and hysteresis in EU countries: lessons from very different crises

by Alfonso Arpaia, Alessandro Turrini

  • In this contribution we point out some issues in economic policy and hysteresis in the light of salient facts about the labour market that emerged after the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 crisis.
  • After the financial crisis, the demand shock was followed by an increase in long-term unemployment and a deterioration of the matching efficiency between available jobs and job seekers. The lower matching efficiency contributed to depressing job creation, thus leading to hysteresis, in a context where wage dynamics appeared compatible with a flattening of the Phillips curve.
  • The post-financial crisis experience contrasts with the post-pandemic experience. The large-scale use of employment protection schemes similar to the ordinary CIG helped to contain terminations and support exit rates from unemployment, reducing the risk of its chronicisation.
  • These experiences highlight the relevance of measures to contain job destruction in the face of temporary shocks and the importance of institutions that contribute to the resilience of matching labour supply and demand, primarily employment services and effective active labour policies.

JEL Classification: J63, J64, J65, J68.
Keywords: unemployment, natural rate of unemployment, Beveridge curve.

Corporate governance systems: structural characteristics and future prospects

by Alessandro Zattoni

  • Corporate governance systems determine the behaviour (e.g., strategies, investments) and results (e.g., growth, profitability) of companies and, indirectly, also of economic systems. After the fall of the Soviet regime based on the socialist model, paraphrasing Francis Fukuyama's famous book The End of History and the Last Man1, can we claim to have reached the end of the story of corporate governance systems? Are all industrialised and emerging countries converging towards a single capitalist model?
  • Even after the substantial disappearance of the socialist model, the models of capitalism that have developed at the national level continue to differ. That is, there has been no convergence of the various corporate governance systems towards a single common model, which, according to some scholars, was supposed to be the Anglo-American model, as it was considered more efficient and effective.
  • Starting from these reflections, this paper analyses the main corporate governance systems in order to present their characteristics, recent evolution and future prospects. In particular, it highlights how the various systems are oriented towards creating value for shareholders or stakeholders and how recent crises - think, for example, of the financial crisis or the Covid-19 epidemic - may change this orientation in the future.

JEL Classification: G3, P1, P4, P5.
Keywords: corporate governance systems, convergence, performance, equality.

The European Innovation Clubs

by Ariel L. Wirkierman, Tommaso Ciarli, Maria Savona

  • This article presents a revised mapping of National Innovation Systems (NIS) in Europe, based on a new empirical analysis of micro-aggregate data from different EU countries.
  • Using data from Eurostat's Community Innovation Survey 2014 (CIS 2014), we performed a factor analysis to identify the multiple components of NIS in the EU. We analysed the relationships between the firm's structure, innovation strategies and performance with the relevant institutional characteristics of the NIS in which they are embedded, including the nature of public sector support (e.g. cooperation and public procurement) and the characteristics of public-private links (e.g. with universities, foreign institutions and/or other firms).
  • We then redrew a map of European innovation 'clubs' by means of a cluster analysis based on different factors. Our results complement the most recent literature on NIS with evidence from micro-aggregate level data. The representation of European innovation clubs provides useful evidence for reviewing the European cohesion strategy, to be realised through industrial and innovation policies.

JEL Classification: O30, O52, C38.
Keywords: National Innovation Systems, Europe, technology clubs, innovation policies.

Nearshoring and Farsharing in Europe in the Global Economy

by Filippo Bontadini, Valentina Meliciani, Maria Savona, Ariel L. Wirkierman

  • This paper applies (and refines) the well-established input-output methodology to the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) dataset to study the evolution of global value chains (GVCs) over the period 1995-2018 in three geographical areas: Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Americas.
  • The results show three distinct patterns of integration in GVCs. In particular, the European model appears to be characterised by an increasing regionalisation of its supply of foreign value added (nearshoring) and a globalisation of internal value added contributions (farsharing). In contrast to Asia, where nearshoring is accompanied by an increasing internal absorption of value added, Europe has become increasingly dependent on extra-regional demand. This calls for a deeper analysis of the gains and losses for Europe of a process of further fragmentation of value chains into regional blocks.
  • Furthermore, from the perspective of employment, the results show that European GVCs mainly generate employment outside Europe, but also suggest that these are low value-added jobs. Overall, these results highlight that added value and employment are not always distributed equally along global value chains and that both aspects should be central in discussions on the future of GVCs.

JEL Classification: F10, F15, C67.
Keywords: global value chains, nearshoring, value added, employment.

Fintech: scenarios and challenges for a possible finance of the future

by Nicola Borri

  • Blockchain is a technological innovation that has the potential to radically change our financial markets through a different management of the 'promise market' that underpins our financial systems. However, in order for fintech finance to replace, in whole or in part, traditional finance, it will have to meet important challenges, such as regulation, environmental sustainability, the relationship with illegal activities and the increased efficiency of crypto markets. For this reason, the likely future of fintech finance will be more boring, but also more transparent, efficient and regulated.

JEL Classification: G14, G15, F31.
Keywords: Fintech, crypto, blockchain, NFT.

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