The objectives of European energy and climate policies to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 - Green Deal and 'Fit for 55' Package - are destined to produce a profound structural impact on the European and Italian economic-productive system, radically changing the ways in which energy is produced and consumed.

Confindustria, with the contribution of the Associations of the System and in cooperation with RSE (Ricerca Sistema Energetico), has drawn up the study "Scenarios and economic impact assessments of Fit for 55 targets for Italy" which intends to provide a contribution to the construction of the new energy plan that our country will have to adopt in order to achieve the decarbonisation targets for 2030. The new scenario is also the basis on which the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (NIPEC), which all Member States will have to submit to Brussels by 31/12/2023, will have to be updated and drafted.

The analysis provides an initial assessment of the 'Fit for 55' proposal with the objective of evaluating an alternative decarbonisation pathway that achieves the same reduction in greenhouse gas emissions through the efficient use of economic resources whilecan foster the development of the industrial fabric, protect the international competitiveness of Italian companiesand further contain the social cost of the transition.

In the Confindustria scenario, the introduction of the single emissions constraint leads to a 2030 configuration with less challenging targets in terms of energy efficiency and a greater development of renewable energy sources than the path outlined for the FF55 scenario.

The realisation of demand-supporting investments and incentives to boost technology supply would amount to to EUR 1,120.7 billion, with an increase in production of EUR 1,976.1 billion (+4.7% on average per year, EUR 1,645.3 billion net of imported intermediate goods), higher employment of 11.5 million AWU (+3.1%) and an increase in added value of EUR 689.1 billion (+3.7% on average per year). It is a flow of unprecedented investments, which requires a strategic vision of the country systemwhich can ensure that an important part of these can be translated into a driving force for the development of Italy's manufacturing capacity.

At the macroeconomic level, the overall effects on the state budget over the period considered were also estimated. The positive net effect in terms of revenue for the state and in terms of avoided costs is approximately 595 billion/€. The potential net effect results in a total direct investment cost of approximately 527 billion/€.

The size of the investments at stake is certainly a worrying factor, but it also represents a driver of industrial growth for Italy: for this reason, the second part of the Report will soon be completed, in which the mapping of the most directly involved Italian technology sectors will be presented, with the aim of integrating energy transition policies with an assessment of the possible impacts in terms of industrial policy.