The Check-up Mezzogiorno 2025, made by Confindustria e SRM – Studies and Research for the Mezzogiorno, has photographed the image of an area that, although within a macroeconomic and geopolitical context still marked by strong uncertainties, shows signs of progressive structural strengthening. In recent years, the growth dynamic of the South has been on average stronger than that of the rest of the country, opening up a credible trajectory for the recovery of historical gaps.

The path is neither linear nor homogeneous across territories and sectors, but it shows elements of consolidation that deserve attention, especially in light of the growing role played by investment and public policy support.

Investment and public policies at the heart of growth

Going into detail, the summary index of the southern economy, updated with a new methodological approach that takes 2014 as the base year and allows a direct comparison with Centre and North, places the Mezzogiorno at an intermediate level between the other macro-areas in 2025. The Check-up shows that after the slowdown in 2024, the Index is growing significantly again, driven mainly by investments.

In the medium term, the South also shows a more lively dynamic on the GDP, with cumulative growth above the national average and prospects for further strengthening linked to the progressive grounding of the PNRR. Alongside investment, public policies have played a decisive role in supporting the resilience of the production system, helping to activate new production and employment capacity.

Single SEZ and NRP: encouraging results, but critical issues remain

Among the most effective instruments are the tax credit for investments in the Single SEZ Noon and the model of single authorisations, which favoured an acceleration of investments thanks to administrative simplification. The data show a strong participation of businesses and a significant volume of investments activated, which also had a significant impact on employment.

The PNRR represents another key lever for the Mezzogiorno, which concentrates a significant share of projects and resources. However, a number of critical issues persist on the implementation front: among these is the payment rate, which remains lower than in the Centre-North and which highlights the need to strengthen administrative capacity and speed up implementation processes.

The “Mezzogiorno Factor” and the challenge of the post-NRR phase

Looking at the big picture, the Check-up confirms the relevance of the “Mezzogiorno factor”. A combination of economic growth, public policies and entrepreneurial capacity, capable of giving the South a renewed centrality in national development. At the same time, however, the risk of a slowdown and a reopening of the gaps remains evident, especially considering the current uncertain international context.

«In order to consolidate the growth phase and turn it into structural development, it is necessary to ensure certainty of rules, continuity of instruments and consistency of policies, in a medium- to long-term vision,» commented Natale Mazzuca, Vice-President of Confindustria for Strategic Policies for the Development of the Mezzogiorno.

According to the Vice-President, «it is crucial to preserve and strengthen instruments that are working, starting with the ZES Unica Mezzogiorno, and address still unresolved issues such as the ability to attract large enterprises, the strengthening of innovative supply chains, the territorial rebalancing of investments, and the construction of a clear strategy for the post-NRP phase. Only in this way, also with the contribution of the economic and social partnership, will it be possible to consolidate the “Mezzogiorno Factor”, to the benefit of the South and the Country».