La January 2026 Flash Forecast of Confindustria Centro Studi returns a very weak growth picture for the Italian economy. The international context remains uncertain and is reflected in the decisions of households and businesses: the dollar devalued against the euro penalises exports, while geopolitical tensions fuel a climate of caution that slows down consumption. Against this backdrop, the economy appears essentially at a standstill, with few factors capable of sustaining GDP.

Energy: prices rise again

Early 2026 the fall in energy prices is interrupted. Oil rises to an average of USD 65 per barrel and gas also stops falling, remaining at levels well above pre-2022 levels. Inflation remains moderate, but the cost of energy continues to weigh on the competitiveness of companies.

Lower rates, normalising credit

On the financial front sovereign yields continue to fall as spreads tighten. As for the rates, the ECB is holding them steady and even the FED is taking a pause. Bank credit is growing again and the cost for businesses has stopped falling, stabilising at historically favourable levels, albeit far from the extraordinary lows of the negative rate phase.

Investment: the NRP remains the main support

The main driver of growth is investment. The final acceleration of the NRP supports demand for capital goods and construction, while credit shows signs of recovery. However, elements of fragility remain. These include the recent drop in business confidence, which points to a still uncertain environment.

Consumption cautious, services resilient

Despite growth in disposable income, households increase savings due to uncertainty resulting in a slowdown in consumption. On the other hand, services continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, supported mainly by foreign tourism.

Industry and exports: mixed signals

The manufacturing industry shows an irregular trend, with recovery phases followed by new slowdowns. Exports remain weak, especially to the main advanced markets, while some European and Asian destinations are holding up. The international scenario remains complex, with the Eurozone slowing down, the United States still growing but with signs of deceleration, and China continuing to focus on exports.

Focus of the month: global tensions and financial markets

The January's focus is on the evolution of financial markets in a context of increasing international uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions and mistrust towards US assets pushed the gold price to new highs, but without triggering a general flight from equity investments. European stock exchanges continue to show a more favourable dynamic than those in the USA, with possible positive effects on corporate financing conditions.