Journal of Economic Policy

ITALY SYSTEM 2025

Introduction

by Stefano Manzocchi, Giovanni Orsina

Opportunities and risks for Italy in today's geopolitical framework

by Andrea Manciulli

Export as a growth engine for the Italian economy

by Cristina Pensa, Matteo Pignatti

The Italian political system from 2011 to 2024: crisis, populism, return of stability

by Lorenzo Castellani

Savings: a resource to be put to better use

by Gregorio De Felice

Reforms and institutions: yet, something is moving

by Serena Sileoni, Carlo Stagnaro

A strategic approach to public administration in the development of the Italian system

by Edoardo Ongaro

The return of industrial policy in Italy and Europe. Open questions of political economy

by Marco Simoni

Schools in Italy: critical issues and priorities for action

by Andrea Gavosto, Marco Gioannini

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Introduction

by Stefano Manzocchi, Giovanni Orsina

What is the 'Italian system' in 2025? Does it really exist, and how does it react to major global changes? These are far from new questions, which are coming to the fore in a historical phase of extraordinary complexity. Understanding Italian dynamics today requires a wide-ranging and articulated view, capable of integrating historical reading, structural analysis and strategic reflection. This is the aim of this issue of Rivista di Politica Economica, which brings together eight contributions on crucial junctures in contemporary Italy: from the international role to political-administrative transformations, from private savings to industrial policy.

The picture that emerges is that of a country resilient but marked by contradictions: capable of effective impulses and responses, but also held back by chronic weaknesses. Italy remains a manufacturing powerhouse of global importance, but with a downsized production base and strongly tied to European value chains. Exports remain a strong point, although suffering from a limited presence of large companies. Private savings are abundant, but struggle to turn into an engine of development. Politically, after a decade of turbulence, the country has regained relative stability, albeit without solid institutional reforms and with a system still very much centred on individual leaderships.

Structural challenges remain deep: low levels of education and skills, territorial inequalities, low productivity, inadequate public administration, inefficient judicial system. In this scenario, geopolitical tensions and changes in global governance raise further questions, as do European fragmentation and the Union's difficulties in building a common strategic vision.

Yet, there is no shortage of opportunities. The return of industrial policy, the potential of the PNRR, the role of SMEs and Italy's geopolitical centrality in the Mediterranean can be decisive levers. Provided they are accompanied by effective governance, targeted reforms and a shared strategic vision. The essays collected in this volume address these issues from different perspectives, but they converge in the need to finally address the country's weaknesses in a systemic and forward-looking manner. The initial questions remain unanswered, but the contributions offer valuable keys for orientation in a historical phase that is as challenging as it is full of possibilities.

Opportunities and risks for Italy in today's geopolitical framework

by Andrea Manciulli

  •  Italy and Europe are facing a twofold interconnected transformation: global geopolitical reorganisation and techno-social revolutions, which require an integrated, long-term strategic vision.
  •  Russia's strategy towards the West is multi-layered: it operates in the South through mercenaries and indirect influence in Africa, aiming to control migration routes and illegal trafficking; in the North, it aims at the Arctic to gain commercial advantages and sovereignty over strategic resources; finally, it acts on a cultural and cognitive level, fuelling sovereignist narratives and disinformation campaigns.
  • The Southern front is crucial for Italy, both as a source of instability (mi- grations, terrorism, climate crisis as in the Lake Chad basin) and as a strategic area for development, access to critical resources and Euro-African cooperation. The Mattei Plan should be read within this broader framework.
  •  Europe is called upon to redefine its global role, strengthening its strategic autonomy in defence, technology and governance. A political and cultural leap is needed to overcome the false dilemma between Atlanticism and Europeanism.
  • Italy can play a leading role, thanks to its position, institutional history and mediation skills, helping to build a more united, forward-looking Europe capable of facing global challenges.
JEL Classification: F51, F52, F59, H56, Q54 .
Keywords: European security, Italian foreign policy, geopolitical competition, Russian strategy, Southern front, Africa-Europe partnership, climate security, hybrid threats, transnational terrorism .

Export as a growth engine for the Italian economy

by Cristina Pensa, Matteo Pignatti

  • Exports are the most dynamic component of Italian GDP. In the last decade, exports of goods grew by almost 30%, more than that of the other main European economies. It has been accompanied by a rise in domestic demand, both business investment and household consumption, and in European demand. In a scenario of global geopolitical fragmentation, the European single market is a crucial growth and resilience factor for Italian exports.
  • The Italian manufacturing base, which generates almost all sales of goods abroad, has undergone profound transformations. Over the past two decades, the number of enterprises has fallen by almost 40%, a selection that has strengthened the set of active enterprises in terms of size and internationalisation. The incidence of exports and the average export per enterprise have increased, particularly among SMEs.
  • The reconfiguration of the manufacturing sector has favoured the overperformance of Italian exports, through: diversification and flexibility in the face of global shocks; gains in product quality; moderate price and ULC dynamics, also thanks to the resilience of productivity. Italian medium-sized companies are more productive than their French, Spanish and even German counterparts.
  • More than 40% of Italian manufacturing production is activated by Global Value Chains, also via European manufacturing connections. Italian participation, spread upstream and downstream in the supply chains, has contained the effects of supply blockages. However, the crisis in German industry and rising energy costs have had profound effects, highlighting the need for a common European strategy to reduce strategic dependencies and preserve industrial competitiveness.
JEL Classification: F14, F15, L60, D24, F23, R12 .
Keywords: export performance, price, cost and quality competitiveness, restructuring of the manufacturing base, Global Value Chains

The Italian political system from 2011 to 2024: crisis, populism, return of stability

by Lorenzo Castellani

  •  The period 2011-2024 saw profound transformations in the Italian political system.
  • Beginning with the sovereign debt crisis and nine governments in thirteen years, it has been marked by the rise of populist and sovereignist parties and multipolar fragmentation.
  • Technical governments, broad coalitions and populist-led governments have followed one another, influenced by economic crises, pandemics and external constraints.
  • The 2022 elections with the Meloni government brought back a bipolar pattern, suggesting stabilisation, albeit with open political and institutional challenges.
JEL Classification: H1, H5, P0.
Keywords: populism, technocracy, crisis, government, stability.

Savings: a resource to be put to better use

by Gregorio De Felice

  • Saving constitutes a valuable resource for individual and collective well-being, which nevertheless remains under-utilised in continental Europe: the large amounts of liquid assets deposited in current accounts, but also the comparison with investments, which are structurally lower than savings capacity, give a tangible idea of this. As a consequence, a significant share of European savings is invested in external financial assets.
  • The difficulty in creating a virtuous circle between savings and investments is explained by cultural and structural factors. For Italy, the low propensity to risk of households and the preference given to real estate investment, the particular structure of the industrial fabric and the limited access of companies to the capital market are all relevant. Looking at Europe, the fragmentation of financial markets, regulation and supervision, together with a development of private pension funds not comparable to that of the Anglo-Saxon world, is a burden.
  • The proposal for a Savings and Investments Union was born with the ambition of directing savings to the financing of the major challenges Europe faces to preserve competitiveness and reduce the technology gap with the world's largest economies.
  • Financial intermediaries have a key role to play on the twin fronts of advising households on the use of savings and supporting business growth and investment by facilitating their access to capital markets.

JEL Classification: D14, G11, G51 .
Keywords: savings, wealth, household financial assets, Savings and Investments Union.

Reforms and institutions: yet, something is moving

by Serena Sileoni, Carlo Stagnaro

  • The call for reforms is now something of a mantra that is being raised from everywhere, both in the private sector and within the institutions themselves, as a necessary precondition for greater competitiveness of our country's system.
  • While the public decision-making process struggles to guarantee them, the institutions have been affected by the country's political, cultural, economic and social changes, adapting to them in their procedures and practices, without these changes necessarily being matched by real reforms. They therefore move beyond and sometimes in spite of what the rules of the institutional game envisage.
  • In this contribution, we will clarify what is meant by institutional reforms in a historical perspective and what structural reforms consist of. Then, the relevance of these reforms on economic and social relations will be considered. The topic of institutional reforms will then be brought up to date in the context of the NRP. Finally, we will look specifically at the issue of justice and its relationship with the country's growth and economic stability.

JEL Classification: K40, O52, P17.
Keywords: structural reforms, constitutional reforms, competitiveness, justice, economic growth.

A strategic approach to public administration in the development of the Italian system

by Edoardo Ongaro

  •  It outlines the contents of a strategic approach to the contribution that public administrations can offer in the development of the Italian system. It is articulated on three levels. The first level concerns the definition of what it means to strategically manage a public administration and what differentiates strategic action from the absence of strategy. The second level consists in introducing the concept of strategy management at scale, of strategy management that is at the scale (order of magnitude and complexity) of the challenges facing Italy and Europe today. The third level consists in examining the strategic role of public administrations in the development of the country system.
  • The approach of the so-called schools of thought in strategic management is adopted: 'strategy' is seen as a multi-faceted and multi-purpose concept, which requires the integration of a plurality of conceptual lenses in order to be understood, defined and operationalised.
  • The following approaches to strategy formation are introduced and briefly described: design school, planning school, positioning school, learning school, cultural school, resource-based view and dynamic capabilities; network-based strategy; public value approach.
  • Key concepts are examined in order to adapt strategy formation models to the level of challenges that it requires to operate as a system. The dimensions of analysis considered are: i) which stakeholders should be involved in the strategy process; ii) what role each actor plays in the formation of the strategy and what system of interactions is configured (dynamically) between the actors in the process; iii) what strategic horizon makes the development of an appropriate strategy possible.
  • The key message of this contribution is that public administrations must act strategically to contribute to the capacity of the country system to meet the challenges it faces, and, crucially, they must strategise at the level of governance required by the nature of the contemporary challenges they face.
JEL Classification: H1, H7, H83.
Keywords: public administration, strategy, country/Italy system, global challenges.

The return of industrial policy in Italy and Europe. Open questions of political economy

by Marco Simoni

  • The acquisition of a controlling stake in TIM by Poste Ita- liane, symbolically reversing the historic privatisation, sanctions the return of industrial policy as a strategy that is now shared and no longer contested. This raises open questions regarding the modalities of intervention, governance and strategic objectives of public action.
  • Increasing state activism, both at the global and European level, is motivated by multiple factors highlighted in the recent literature: economic growth, green transition, national security and geopolitical competition. However, governance issues emerge that are particularly relevant for the European Union, where fragmentation due to poorly coordinated national interventions prevails
  • The recent experience of the United States calls for caution with respect to the macroeconomic effects of ambitious industrial policies, highlighting risks of inflationary pressures and difficulties in reconciling them with different models of capitalism. These critical issues remain relevant for Europe as well, making it essential to think of new coordination instruments.
  • For Italy, there appears to be a strengthening of coordinated capitalism institutions in the finance sector (Cdp, SACE), while those dedicated to the training of technical-scientific skills still appear insufficient. Finally, the possibility emerges of overcoming the approach of horizontal industrial policies, identifying strategic sectors and investing in a targeted manner to tackle the persistent structural weaknesses of the national production system.
JEL Classifications: L52, O25, P16 .
Keywords: industrial policy, public intervention, economic governance.

Schools in Italy: critical issues and priorities for action

by Andrea Gavosto, Marco Gioannini

  • The article describes the main criticalities in Italian schools today, many of which are accentuated by the pandemic, and defines some priorities for intervention.
  • Since Covid, student skills have worsened, as shown by INVALSI and international surveys, and no significant trend reversal is yet visible. The health emergency has exacerbated structural problems that were already present: delays and gaps in learning, territorial and social inequalities, limitations in teaching methodologies, shortcomings in teacher training.
  • Italian schools struggle to ensure equity, penalising students from the South, those from disadvantaged family backgrounds and girls in STEM disciplines.
  • Added to this is the dramatic decline in the student population, which threatens to empty classrooms and questions the size and employment of the teaching staff.
  • Five priority areas for reform are suggested: more effective school orientation, especially from middle to high school, reform of the technical-professional sector, renovation of school buildings, updating of curricula and, above all, reform of teacher training and selection. For the latter, Law 79/2022 could have marked a step change in the quality of teaching, but it has been emptied of content, hindered by corporatist logic. The PNRR itself risks remaining a missed opportunity, despite the substantial resources invested.
JEL Classification: I2, I210, I240, I260, I280 .
Keywords: learning, demographic decline, explicit and implicit dispersion, gaps, teachers, school building, teacher training, technical and vocational education, guidance, pandemi, NRP, STEM .

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