{"id":24191,"date":"2026-04-20T09:53:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T07:53:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/?post_type=pubblicazioni&p=24191"},"modified":"2026-04-20T09:56:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T07:56:31","slug":"energy-price-rises-drop-in-confidence-and-expectations-sovereign-rates-rise-first-impacts-of-war","status":"publish","type":"pubblicazioni","link":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/publications\/energy-price-rises-drop-in-confidence-and-expectations-sovereign-rates-rise-first-impacts-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising energy prices, falling confidence and expectations, rising sovereign rates: first impacts of war"},"content":{"rendered":"

The scenario worsened.<\/strong> Oil prices are high, despite the fragile truce in the Middle East war. The impact of the energy shock can already be read in many data on the Italian economy: household confidence is falling, anticipating a slowdown in consumption; sovereign rates are rising; expectations on industry, which was trying to recover, are falling; services are also slowing down. Investments are holding up, which in the first three months of 2026 are still supported by PNNR resources.<\/p>\n

Expensive oil, also gas but less.<\/strong> The price of oil is kept high by the conflict in the Middle East, which threatens shortages: $102 per barrel on average in April (up from $99 in March), up $40 on the December average ($62). The price of gas, on the other hand, moderated somewhat in April (48 euro\/mwh), after having risen in March (53) almost twice as high as in December (28). The dollar stopped at 1.16 against the euro in April, after strengthening in March: this is not helping to dampen energy price increases for the Eurozone.<\/p>\n

Rising rates.<\/strong> The war is widening spreads and reversing the course of sovereign rates in Europe, from the lows of 27 February to the highs of 27 March: in Italy to 4.02% from 3.36%, in France 3.79% from 3.17%, in Germany 3.07% from 2.61%; in April, slight moderation. The Italian corporate rate is at 3.33% in February but will rise, curbing credit. In fact, the ECB is expected to raise rates again in the short term (from 2.00%), because of the already started jump in inflation: in Europe +2.5% in March, from +1.9%; in the US +3.3% from +2.4%; in Italy it rose less (+1.7% from +1.5%) because the prices of some services fell while energy rose.<\/p>\n

Investment: stable indicators.<\/strong> Economic data show signs of resilience in investment for Q1. In March, the confidence of capital goods manufacturing companies remained almost unchanged, following increases in January-February. In construction, business confidence increased for the second month, driven by employment expectations, albeit with worsening expectations on construction plans.<\/p>\n

Consumption: confidence down, risk of increased savings.<\/strong> In Q4 the savings rate had fallen to 7.8%, just above the pre-pandemic level. In February, retail sales contracted (-0.2%), especially for food goods. In March, car purchases grew slightly (+0.6%), but confidence deteriorated sharply: this could push up savings already in Q1, curbing consumption.<\/p>\n

Industry: negative expectations.<\/strong> In February, industrial production had increased by just +0.1%, insufficient to make up for January's decline (-0.6%): in Q1, the expected reduction is -0.5%. In March, the PMI is in the expansionary zone (51.3 from 50.6), but activity is supported by the \u201cprecautionary\u201d build-up of inventories in various sectors, in anticipation of price increases. Industrial business confidence is up modestly, but the impact of the war is evident in the sharp drop in production expectations.<\/p>\n

A drop in demand is also expected in services.<\/strong> Services in Italy were accelerating in early 2026, in particular with foreign tourist spending at +6.3% trend in January. But with the war, the SP-SMI fell sharply into recessionary territory in March (48.8 from 52.3), reflecting a drop in demand. Business confidence in services rose slightly, but expectations on orders worsened.<\/p>\n

Exports on the rise before the conflict.<\/strong> Italian goods exports rebounded in February (+2.2% at constant prices), after a lull in January. Crucial was the rebound in sales to the USA (+8.0% trend, after months of decline), concentrated in pharmaceuticals and other means of transport. The new duties, from 24 February, make Italian goods less competitive than before. A direct impact of the war is expected on the 22 billion in exports to the Gulf countries and on some critical supplies (aluminium, fertilisers).<\/p>\n

Eurozone: signs of distrust.<\/strong> In February, industrial production stagnated in Spain and Germany, contracted in France (-0.8%); in March, PMIs indicate improvement in Germany, stability in France, decline in Spain; while in services, France is the only one to decline. Confidence and employment expectations are falling in the area in the wake of the war and uncertainty has risen to April 2025 levels.<\/p>\n

Upside forecast for the US.<\/strong> The FED revised its forecast for the US economy upwards: +2.4% in 2026. Industrial production declined in March (-0.5%), but in Q1 as a whole it recorded +0.6% (after -0.4% in Q4); the PMI and ISM indices confirm the positive trend in manufacturing. The increase in the number of employed persons (+178,000) and low claims for unemployment benefits point to an improvement in the US labour market.<\/p>\n

China slows down.<\/strong> In 2026 growth is expected to weaken (target at +4.5\/5.0%) due to increased war-related difficulties in foreign trade and energy supply. Exports are already slowing down (+2.5% p.a. in March, from +21.8% in January-February), the PMI indicates weakness for industrial production (50.8 in March, from 52.1), which had posted +6.3% p.a. in the first two months. Imports grew (+27.8%), at the highest pace since 2021, signalling improving domestic demand.<\/p>\n

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Guerra: for companies, energy up to +21 billion<\/h2>\n

What companies say.<\/strong> In the March questionnaire of the Indagine Rapida sull'attivit\u00e0 nell'industria italiana, administered between the 18th and the 25th to large companies in the sector that are members of Confindustria, they were asked to identify the main obstacles related to the conflict in the Middle East, distinguishing between critical issues that had already emerged and problems that were expected in the event of a prolongation beyond a month. This allowed the Centro Studi Confindustria to gather direct information on the impacts of the war suffered by Italian industrial companies, well in advance of official statistical data.<\/p>\n

Companies worried about costs.<\/strong> The results show that concerns focus mainly on three factors: the cost of energy, indicated as critical by 25.0% of respondents, the cost of transport and\/or insurance (21.9%) and the cost of non-energy raw materials (18.4%). The latter assumes greater prominence in the outlook, being the main source of concern (20.7% of the companies) should the conflict continue; followed by the cost of energy (19.4%) and transport and\/or insurance costs (15.4%). Further critical issues that are already well evident include obstacles to exports (11.2%) and the increase in the cost of semi-finished products (8.5%); the latter assumes greater weight in the prospective scenario, being indicated as a risk by 10.3% of respondents in the event of the conflict continuing beyond one month.<\/p>\n

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The duration of the conflict matters a lot.<\/strong> On the whole, the results show how cost pressures are, at the moment, more relevant than supply difficulties: the ongoing tensions on the prices of inputs quoted on international markets, both energy and non-energy, appear, for the time being, to be attributable to speculative dynamics (based on the expectation of future scarcity), rather than to physical availability constraints. In particular, this is true for oil, the commodity most affected by the war: on prices (immediately) and volumes (in a few months\u2019 time). In a longer perspective of the conflict, there are also signs of increasing attention to input supply risks, i.e. volume shortages. In particular, the share of companies indicating criticality in the supply of raw materials increases from 7.4% to 11.3%, making this factor the fourth most important expected risk. With a long conflict, companies' concern for production sites in the affected Gulf countries also increases.<\/p>\n

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By how much do energy costs increase for companies?<\/strong> The Centro Studi Confindustria has estimated how much energy costs for companies in Italy could increase this year under different scenarios for the war in Iran. The estimate applies energy commodity price increases to the production cost structure of companies. Already in 2025, due to the effects on gas and oil prices of the 2022 surge, Italian manufacturing paid a higher energy bill than its main European competitors (France and Germany), with energy costs as a percentage of total costs higher than 6 years earlier (by +25%, from 3.9% pre-Covid, to 4.9%). For 2026, assuming that the war in Iran ends in June (with oil averaging $110 per year), that pre-conflict trade flows resume, and that the production capacity of the Gulf countries remains adequate to support global supply, Italian manufacturing companies would find themselves paying an additional EUR 7 billion per year more in energy bills than in 2025; the incidence of energy costs would be 1 percentage point higher, rising from 4.9% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026. On the other hand, if the war were to continue through 2026, with oil averaging USD 140 per year, companies would pay USD 21 billion more and the incidence would rise by 2.7 percentage points (from 4.9% to 7.6%). In this case, it would reach around the critical levels already experienced in 2022 (8.3%), which are not sustainable for our companies. They would see their competitiveness eroded both in Europe and internationally, considering also that oil and gas prices are lower for companies located in other areas of the world, particularly in the American continent.<\/p>\n

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The scenario worsened. Oil prices are high, despite the fragile truce in the Middle East war. The impact of the energy shock can already be read in many data on the Italian economy: household confidence falls, anticipating a slowdown in consumption; sovereign rates rise; expectations on industry, which was trying to rise again, are lowered; the economy is slowing [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":10030,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"in-evidenza":[],"prodotto":[131],"tag_globale":[],"tema_globale":[],"class_list":["post-24191","pubblicazioni","type-pubblicazioni","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","prodotto-congiuntura-flash"],"acf":{"scarica_nota":{"ID":24199,"id":24199,"title":"Publications Energy Price Rise Fi Fall Flash Apr26","filename":"pubblicazioni-rincari-dellenergia-calo-di-fi-Congiuntura_Flash_apr26.pdf","filesize":272972,"url":"https:\/\/public.confindustria.it\/repository\/2026\/04\/20095159\/pubblicazioni-rincari-dellenergia-calo-di-fi-Congiuntura_Flash_apr26.pdf","link":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/publications\/energy-price-rises-drop-in-confidence-and-expectations-sovereign-rates-rise-first-impacts-of-war\/pubblicazioni-rincari-dellenergia-calo-di-fi-congiuntura_flash_apr26\/","alt":"","author":"13","description":"","caption":"","name":"publications-rincari-dell'energia-calo-di-fi-congiuntura_flash_apr26","status":"inherit","uploaded_to":24191,"date":"2026-04-20 07:51:59","modified":"2026-04-20 07:51:59","menu_order":0,"mime_type":"application\/pdf","type":"application","subtype":"pdf","icon":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/wp\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/document.png"},"rep_dei_contatti_copy":"","rep_delle_persone":[9388],"immagine_icona_csc":"","scelta_video_da_caricare":"seleziona una modalit\u00e0..","video_da_scaricare":null,"label_video_csc":"","url_per_video":"","label_url_video_csc":"","scarica":"","label_download":"Scarica PDF","layout":"standard","scarica_2":"","label_download_2":"Scarica PDF","layout_2":"standard","scarica_3":"","label_download_3":"Scarica PDF","layout_3":"standard","scarica_4":"","label_download_4":"Scarica PDF","layout_4":"standard","scarica_5":"","label_download_5":"Scarica PDF","layout_5":"standard"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pubblicazioni\/24191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pubblicazioni"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/pubblicazioni"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pubblicazioni\/24191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24201,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pubblicazioni\/24191\/revisions\/24201"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/team\/9388"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"in-evidenza","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/in-evidenza?post=24191"},{"taxonomy":"prodotto","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/prodotto?post=24191"},{"taxonomy":"tag_globale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tag_globale?post=24191"},{"taxonomy":"tema_globale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tema_globale?post=24191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}