{"id":21548,"date":"2025-11-22T08:00:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T07:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/?post_type=news&p=21548"},"modified":"2025-11-22T08:25:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T07:25:05","slug":"november-flash-business-cycle-firm-gdp-confidence-on-the-rise-and-investment-on-the-rise","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/news\/november-flash-business-cycle-firm-gdp-confidence-on-the-rise-and-investment-on-the-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Flash November economy: GDP at a standstill, confidence on the rise and investment on the rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

La Flash conjecture<\/em> of November, a new monthly update of the Centro Studi Confindustria,<\/strong> photographs an Italian economy in which GDP remains static<\/strong>despite a framework characterised by moderate inflation, increased confidence and rising investment in the second half of the year. Weighed down above all by the two external brakes - US duties and a weak dollar<\/strong> - limiting export dynamics and contributing to the stagnation in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

Rising food prices, falling oil and US rate cut<\/h2>\n

On the price front, the CSC notes a increase in foodstuffs<\/strong> (+2.3%, +5.8% meat) against a downturn in oil<\/strong> back to 2019 levels (USD 64 per barrel), with moderate effects on fuels. Total inflation thus remains moderate (+1.2%).<\/p>\n

In United States<\/strong>\u00a0Monetary easing continued: the Fed cut rates to 4.0%, the second consecutive intervention, with a further adjustment expected between December and January. In the Eurozone<\/strong>instead, ECB rates remain firm at 2.00%<\/strong><\/p>\n

Italy: investment still growing, household confidence improving<\/h2>\n

The investments confirm a positive phase in the second half of the year<\/strong>supported by the NRP and the improvement in the confidence of companies producing capital goods. On the consumption front, household confidence rose for the second month in a row, a signal that could limit the propensity to save. Exports recover slightly in September <\/strong>(+2.6%), driven by the US, albeit in an environment made uncertain by new US duties on medium and heavy vehicles.<\/p>\n

Services expanding, industry still weak<\/h2>\n

Services show mostly positive indicators: tourism is growing moderately and the SME<\/strong> of October rose to 54.0. Industry, on the other hand, continues to show signs of weakness<\/strong>Despite the rebound in September (+2.8%), Q3 production remains in negative territory (-0.5%), with confidence recovering slightly but orders still fragile.<\/p>\n

Europe: diverging industries<\/h2>\n

From 2023 emerges a large gap between the major European economies<\/strong>. Italy and Germany show the weakest performance, while France and Spain maintain a more stable or slightly increasing trajectory.<\/p>\n

In the first nine months of 2025, Industrial production falls again in Germany (-1.5%) and Italy (-0.9%),<\/strong> while growing in Spain (+1.0%) and remaining stable in France. The differential is related to structural factors such as the cost of energy<\/strong>the car crisis and international trade tensions.<\/p>\n

US and China: signs of a slowdown<\/h2>\n

In United States<\/strong> there are signs of weakness in manufacturing and consumption, with indicators such as ISM and Chicago PMI in recessionary territory. In China<\/strong>industry slows down (PMI at 50.6), exports drop by 1.1% and sales to the US fall by 25.2%, confirming a still complex international picture.<\/p>\n

Download here the complete Flash Report<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The November Flash Conjuncture, a new monthly update from the Centro Studi Confindustria, depicts an Italian economy in which GDP remains stagnant, despite a framework characterised by moderate inflation, increased confidence and rising investments in the second half of the year. Weighed down above all are the two external brakes - US duties and the weak dollar - which limit the [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":21549,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"in-evidenza":[78,82,83],"tag_globale":[96],"tema_globale":[],"tipo_news":[146],"class_list":["post-21548","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","in-evidenza-in-archivio-secondario","in-evidenza-in-homepage-top","in-evidenza-in-menu-navigazione","tag_globale-centro-studi","tipo_news-news"],"acf":{"contatti_repeater_news":"","persone_repeater_news":"","colore_fotogallery":"dark","immagini_fotogallery":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/21548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/21548\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21559,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/21548\/revisions\/21559"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"in-evidenza","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/in-evidenza?post=21548"},{"taxonomy":"tag_globale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tag_globale?post=21548"},{"taxonomy":"tema_globale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tema_globale?post=21548"},{"taxonomy":"tipo_news","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.confindustria.it\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tipo_news?post=21548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}